一般情景预测公司名称分析日期总股本久联发展2006/05/2911,000.00代码流通A股A股股价0020374,000.006.03流通B股B股股价Word模板指标输出主营收入（万元）主营收入增长率EBITDA（万元）EBITDA增长率净利润（万元）净利润增长率ROEEPS（元）P/EP/BEV/EBITDA估值结果汇总估值方法FCFFFCFEDDMAPVAEEVA2004A39,827.0015.66%5,792.0019.60%3,068.000.39%7.36%0.27921.621.597.422005A47,847.0020.14%7,869.0035.86%3,522.0014.80%8.56%0.32018.831.615.862006E53,092.4010.96%11,598.7347.40%5,826.7065.44%13.23%0.53011.381.513.992007E62,408.3917.55%15,778.8736.04%8,491.5045.73%17.59%0.7727.811.372.81估值结果17.209.276.2615.709.8713.20 估 值 区 间15.55－8.49－5.68－13.28－9.31－12.01－21.2910.897.4917.7511.0416.15EVA AE APV DDM FCFE FCFF 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 EBITEBITDA所得税率NOPLATICVeVdWACCEV20034,843.004,843.0020.01%3,873.7118,700.0042,210.008,800.009.20%44,977.0020045,028.005,792.0022.62%3,890.9021,897.0066,330.006,750.009.69%42,961.0020056,641.007,869.0026.14%4,905.0725,786.0066,330.008,340.009.57%46,077.002006E9,647.4211,598.7324.38%7,295.6230,293.1366,330.0011,721.459.34%46,323.84业绩表现2003200420052006E收入增长率净利润增长率EBITDA增长率EBIT增长率主营业务利润率EBITDA Margin (%)ROEROICROIC － WACC33.99%22.94%20.72%11.52%15.66%0.39%19.60%3.82%29.60%17.60%7.36%17.77%8.08%20.14%14.80%35.86%32.08%35.17%25.90%8.56%19.02%9.45%10.96%65.44%47.40%45.27%37.68%71.10%13.23%24.08%14.75%价值比率P / EEV / 收入EV / EBITDAEV / EBITEV / NOPLATEV / ICP / BDividend Yield (%)200321.701.319.299.2911.612.413.170.00%200421.621.087.428.5411.041.961.590.00%200518.830.965.866.949.391.791.615.80%2006E11.380.873.994.806.351.531.514.39%每股指标报表EPS经常性EPS每股红利每股经营现金流每股净资产20030.280.001.9020040.280.003.7920050.320.353.742006E0.530.260.804.00流动性净负债 / 权益总负债 / 总资产流动比率速动比率20030.2150.37%1.201.112004(0.56)24.35%2.972.812005(0.49)30.28%2.131.982006E(0.45)34.06%1.991.87输出到Word模板中的三张表（输出2004-2008年）利润表（万元）主营业务收入主营业务利润其他业务利润营业费用管理费用财务费用营业利润投资收益利润总额净利润NOPLAT200439,827.0011,387.00220.001,194.005,385.00213.004,815.00(55.00)4,833.003,068.003,890.90200547,847.0016,320.00186.001,576.008,289.0077.006,564.00(38.00)6,450.003,522.004,905.072006E53,092.4019,455.8150.001,670.238,188.16144.539,502.890.009,472.895,826.707,295.62增长率%10.96%19.21%-73.12%5.98%-1.22%87.70%44.77%N/A46.87%65.44%48.74%资产负债表（万元）流动资产货币资金短期投资应收帐款其他应收款200443,008.0030,119.000.006,130.001,800.00200542,714.0028,593.000.005,831.001,710.002206E48,406.1331,727.610.007,321.001,897.46增长率%13.33%10.96%N/A25.55%10.96%存货长期投资固定资产无形资产总资产无息负债有息负债少数股东权益股东权益净营运资本投入资本IC2,382.00489.009,915.007,070.0060,482.007,730.006,750.004,063.0041,692.0028,528.0021,897.003,146.00489.0018,951.004,572.0066,895.0011,667.008,340.005,515.0041,122.0022,707.0025,786.003,083.33598.0023,456.884,114.8077,174.8112,566.0811,721.456,851.9444,035.3524,118.6130,293.13-1.99%22.29%23.78%-10.00%15.37%7.71%40.54%24.24%7.08%6.22%17.48%现金流量表（万元）净利润折旧摊销净营运资金增加经营活动产生现金流投资活动产生现金流融资活动产生现金流现金净增（减）20043,068.00764.0025,199.001,372.00(3,986.00)4,458.001,844.0020053,522.001,228.00(5,821.00)4,894.00(1,156.00)(4,756.00)(1,018.00)2006E5,826.701,951.321,411.618,801.04(5,990.00)323.573,134.61增长率%65.44%58.90%N/A79.83%N/AN/AN/A指标说明： EV=股权价值+债权价值—现金 EBITDA ＝ EBIT ＋ 折旧 ＋ 摊销 EBIT ＝ 营业利润＋财务费用 NOPLAT ＝ EBIT ×（1－所得税率）＝ EBIT － 所得税（只考虑核心业务，扣除非经常性损益） IC（invested capital）＝ 股东权益 ＋ 长期借款 ＋ 短期借款 ＋ 应付债券 ＋ 少数股东权益－现金－短期投资－长期投资 ROIC ＝ NOPLAT / IC × 100％ OPFCF ＝ EBITDA － 税收 － 净资本性支出－ 营运资本的增加 WACC ＝ [(Ke×Ve)＋（Kd×Vd）] / (Ve＋Vd)Kd＝债务成本＝平均债务利率（1－税率）＝（短期借款×短期借款利率＋长期借款×长期借款利率＋长期应付债券×长期（1－所得税率） Ve ＝ 股本价值 ＝ 股价×总股本 （H股、B股按各自股价×汇率转换为人民币计算，非流通股按A股计算） Vd ＝ 债务价值＝短期借款＋长期借款＋应付债券 Ke ＝ Rf + β(Rm－Rf) 营运资本 ＝ 流动资产 － 流动负债 公司自由现金流 FCFF ＝ EBIT×（1-所得税率）＋折旧－资本支出－非现金性流动资本变化 股权资本自由现金流 FCFE ＝ 税前利润×（1-所得税率）＋折旧－资本支出－非现金性流动资本变化＋新增债务－债务偿还0.000.00流通H股H股股价0.000.002008E75,287.3020.64%19,873.3725.95%11,183.2931.70%20.76%1.0175.931.231.97敏感度分析区间贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%5.742.391.804.471.734.132007E13,480.6215,778.8724.38%10,194.3934,018.1966,330.0015,297.299.11%44,332.512008E17,311.6519,873.3724.38%13,091.5136,013.1866,330.0017,779.268.96%39,118.152007E2008E17.55%45.73%36.04%39.73%41.12%44.87%17.59%29.97%20.86%20.64%31.70%25.95%28.42%42.46%31.79%20.76%36.35%27.39%2007E7.810.712.813.294.351.301.376.40%2008E5.930.521.972.262.991.091.238.43%2007E0.770.391.054.392008E1.020.511.294.902007E(0.46)35.87%1.921.802008E(0.51)36.39%1.991.872007E62,408.3925,018.8450.001,963.319,624.92277.1113,203.500.0013,173.508,491.5010,194.39增长率%17.55%28.59%0.00%17.55%17.55%91.74%38.94%N/A39.07%45.73%39.73%2008E75,287.3031,191.28100.002,368.4611,611.16354.1816,957.480.0016,927.4811,183.2913,091.51增长率%20.64%24.67%100.00%20.64%20.64%27.81%28.43%N/A28.50%31.70%28.42%2007E56,926.1837,294.780.0010,836.001,897.46增长率%17.60%17.55%N/A48.01%0.00%2008E68,660.2644,991.110.0013,072.182,690.69增长率%20.61%20.64%N/A20.64%41.80%3,424.08588.0026,615.833,657.6088,269.6114,368.6415,297.298,322.5848,281.1027,260.2534,018.1911.05%-1.67%13.47%-11.11%14.38%14.34%30.51%21.46%9.64%13.03%12.30%4,036.63588.0027,511.313,200.40100,314.9716,722.6917,779.269,940.2853,872.7534,158.3136,013.1817.89%0.00%3.36%-12.50%13.65%16.38%16.22%19.44%11.58%25.30%5.86%2007E8,491.502,298.253,141.6411,514.19(5,000.00)(947.02)5,567.17增长率%45.73%17.78%122.56%30.83%N/AN/A77.60%2008E11,183.292,561.726,898.0614,160.18(3,000.00)(3,463.84)7,696.34增长率%31.70%11.46%119.57%22.98%N/AN/A38.25%经常性损益）
东权益－现金－短期投资－长期投资借款×长期借款利率＋长期应付债券×长期应付债券利率）/（长期借款＋长期应付债券）×币计算，非流通股按A股计算）资本变化
性流动资本变化＋新增债务－债务偿还